The case fatality ratio (CFR) is a vital metric for assessing the disease severity of novel pathogens. The widely used direct method of CFR estimation-the ratio of total confirmed deaths to total confirmed cases-is inherently simplistic, as it fails to account for the essential time lag between case confirmation to death, and reporting delays. These limitations often lead to biased CFR estimates, particularly in the early stages of outbreaks. This study introduces a novel …